The economics of uncertainty: content, evaluation, and regulation
Keywords:economics of uncertainty, economic theory of uncertainty, uncertainty caused by economic policy, ; political uncertainty, concepts and models of public management
From the title of this monograph, it is clear that it discloses the issue of uncertainty in the economic sphere. The meaning of the authors of this work in the concept of «economic uncertainty» is revealed by the actual content (structure) of the monograph. A special (1st) section of the monograph is devoted to the interpretation of this content. But, despite the obvious things, there is another unobvious aspect of uncertainty in the monograph. It was mentioned by the world-renowned Ukrainian economist M.I. Tuhan-Baranovskyi in the early twentieth century. In the fundamental work «Fundamentals of Political Economy», explaining what economic activity is, he noted the following: «… Ambiguity at this ascending point should bring uncertainty to everything else». That is, uncertainty is presented here as a consequence (result) of ambiguity. The latter is synonymous with ignorance, inexplicability, and lack of recognized principles of cognition and interpretation. Ambiguity continues to produce economic uncertainty. In particular, this relationship between ambiguity and economic uncertainty is realized in the Ukrainian economy. Therefore, by seeking to understand, explain, and apply certain principles of research of the national economy, the authors of this monograph eventually help to limit uncertainty.
In fact, the construction, i.e. the structure of this work, reflects the approach developed by the authors regarding economic uncertainty content explanation. Therefore, we focus readers’ attention on this construction.
First, the structure of the monograph presents two levels of manifestation, respectively, the levels of research and awareness of economic uncertainty: general and special. The general level, which concerns the economy as a whole and is related to the system of public management, is mostly presented in chapters 1-7. Instead, the special one, which is manifested in the organization of certain types of business activities and in its specific areas, is presented mainly in chapters 8-14. It is clear that such a division into general and special is quite conditional. After all, the connection, dependence and mutual penetration of these two levels are indisputable. Differentiation of such levels of uncertainty, on the other hand, becomes necessary, at least in terms of the necessity to apply a recognized ontological (cognitive) principle.
Second, the monograph is constructed in such a way that its chapters reflect the real and current manifestations of economic uncertainty, on the one hand, and the tools of its (uncertainty) research and limitations, on the other.
The following manifestations of uncertainty relevant for the Ukrainian economy are presented in the monograph:
- macro-financial imbalances for which prevention and effective response structures have yet to be built (chapter 3);
- contradictory educational policy, which does not ensure the accumulation of human capital, in accordance with the needs of the economy and society (chapter 4);
- permanent reproduction of the shadow economy with its inherent illegal proceeds of crime (chapter 7);
- unnaturally limited and, therefore, insufficient competitiveness of the entire national economy, individual industries and enterprises (chapter 9);
- excessive tax surplus, which discourages producers and taxpayers (chapter 11);
- ineffectiveness, mostly, formality of efforts to move from a traditional to an innovative model of the economy (chapter 12);
- social exclusion – the lack of necessary involvement of certain groups and strata of society in economic, social, and political life (chapter 13);
- artificially slow formation of the infrastructure of one of the most important sectoral markets in the national economy – the real estate market (chapter 14).
The following tools have been partially applied as well as the possibility of using them in the analysis and in response to scale changes have been studied:
- foresight as a way of modeling the future and implementing its individual elements in today’s life of communities and society (chapter 2);
- large databases (Data Base) as a tool for making management decisions on the basis of identifying non-obvious (hidden), but actually existing significant dependencies (chapter 5);
- methods of qualitative assessment of corporate management of joint-stock companies and their combination with methods of quantitative assessment (chapter 6);
- comprehensive methods of analyzing the efficiency of enterprises with an emphasis on assessing uncertainty (risks) (chapter 8);
- relevant methods of real estate appraisal, able to ensure maximum consideration of the specifics of a particular stage of economic development (chapter10).
This study focuses on one of the industry markets. This is the real estate market, the organization of which is covered in three chapters (chapters 4, 10, 14). This emphasis is explained not only by objective, but also by subjective circumstances. The four co-authors of this monograph not only teach disciplines related to the real estate market in the educational programs of the Department of Theoretical and Applied Economics of KROK University, but also have extensive working experience in this market.
The monograph is the result of a collective study on «The national economy and the economies of sectoral markets under the conditions of institutional uncertainty» №0120U100086.
The authors of the monograph are grateful to KROK University for the opportunity to publish the research results in the form of a monograph.
We hope for the response of the scientific and student community, management specialists to the publication of this monograph. We expect a critical but fair assessment of the results of the author’s team. We would appreciate such an assessment and suggestions for improving the conten.
The plurality of uncertainty economics meanings and public management concepts and models
Foresight in public management as a regulation tool under the conditions of economic uncertainty
Institutional design of macro-financial security for the national economy stabilization
Education and economic certainty: the relationship of the phenomena and implementation peculuarities regarding the real estate market
Data science analysis for management decisions with macro- and microeconomic uncertainty
Corporate management evaluation tools in joint stock companies under economic uncertainty conditions
Comparative analysis of methods for counteracting the legalization (laundering) of income obtained by criminal means
The peculiarities of the research tools in the analysis of enterprise economics in a state of uncertainty
Competitive capacity of enterprises for economic stability and predictability
Relevant real estate appraisal in minimizing economic uncertainty in entrepreneurial activity
The comparative analysis of economic stability and certainty tax provision: Ukraine VS Germany
Innovative entrepreneurship and start-ups for the economy stabilization: world experience and application in Ukraine
Social entrepreneurship as a tool of social inclusion under the conditions of economic uncertainty
Real estate market infrastructure as a factor of economic certainty and market stability
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.